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21-08-24
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This year, the situation of "golden nine and silver ten
- classification:News
- Release time:2021-08-24 09:25
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[Description]In recent days, the overseas epidemic situation has continued to spread
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In recent days, the overseas epidemic situation has continued to spread, and the epidemic situation has rebounded in many provinces and cities in China, which makes the domestic fabric enterprises that have just recovered their "vitality" face a new round of test.
So, under the situation of many uncertainties, will the "golden nine silver ten" situation in China's fabric market still appear this year?
The startup rate does not increase but decreases
With the traditional peak season of the textile market approaching in September and October, the textile market in August should have been busy preparing for the early stage, but in fact, the monitoring results of relevant platforms show that the market is more deserted on the eve of the peak season, with the posture of delaying or even canceling the peak season.
According to the statistics of Longzhong information, from August 6 to August 12, the phenomenon of equipment shutdown and load reduction in major weaving production bases in China intensified. During the period, the comprehensive startup rate was 67.71%, down 2.45% month on month. In terms of various loom types, the starting rate of air-jet looms is 70 ~ 80%, that of circular looms is 40 ~ 50%, that of water-jet looms is above 70%, and that of warp knitting is 70 ~ 80%. With the closing and delisting of some textile markets, the trading volume of grey cloth market fell rapidly, and the inventory once climbed to a high level in the same period last year.
A person in charge of a printing and dyeing enterprise said that after entering July, the market clearly felt the off-season market. The daily warehousing volume of grey cloth in the factory is only 300000 ~ 400000 meters, which can not meet the company's daily production capacity of 700000 meters. After entering August, although the warehousing volume of grey cloth picked up slightly, and the daily production capacity once reached 400000 ~ 500000 meters, it did not last long, and there was a lack of hot-selling products.
"This year's market is not quite the same as in previous years. From 2019 to 2020, the start-up rate of textile mills in Jiangsu and Zhejiang began to rise sharply from the end of July and early August, but the upward trend this year is not obvious. After entering August, the loom startup rate of major textile clusters even dropped to varying degrees. " In this regard, according to the analysis of insiders, this is due to the early overdraft of orders in the second half of the year and the "shortage" of new orders.
The reduction of orders has no power to increase the startup rate of the textile mill. What's more worrying is that because the textile industry has the characteristics of preparing goods in advance, the current situation reflects not only the poor market situation at present, but also the lack of confidence of buyers in the market in the future. Insiders expect that this phenomenon will be difficult to improve in the short term. Under the influence of the epidemic, the pessimism of downstream buyers continued, and most garment enterprises chose to reduce the load. When the consumption and purchasing power can not follow up, the overall weaving market runs slowly.
This makes us worry that this year's "golden nine silver ten" in the fabric market will come to naught?
The future trend is uncertain
"This year's' golden nine silver ten 'probability is difficult to appear." Liao Hongying, who has worked in many industrial parks in Southeast Asia, Africa and other regions, told China Textile News that the global textile industry is in recession. Since 2020, many global clothing brands are waiting for the epidemic to ease in order to improve the decline. However, at present, the global epidemic is still serious, consumers' willingness to consume is not strong, and orders will naturally decrease.
"The long-term nature, complexity and uncertainty of epidemic prevention and control test the operation and viability of fabric enterprises. Especially for many foreign trade enterprises, the primary goal is to "survive" in the second half of this year. " Liao Hongying said that the sharp rise in shipping logistics prices has sharply increased the pressure on many foreign trade enterprises.
Recently, the global container freight index shows that the shipping price from China, Southeast Asia to the east coast of North America has exceeded US $20000 per TEU for the first time. On August 2, the figure was still $16000. According to the data of the General Administration of customs, the export price of containers has also reached a new high in recent 10 years this year. In May 2021, the price reached US $4900 / ton, an increase of 16% compared with the end of last year and 43% compared with the same period last year.
Of course, many fabric enterprises hold different views on the market trend and maintain an optimistic attitude“ As the processing plants in Southeast Asia have been affected by the epidemic recently, we have just developed a number of new customers. " Qian Lijiang, deputy general manager of Zhejiang Shaoxing Yongli printing and dyeing Co., Ltd., said that in the first half of the year, more than 30% of the company's orders came from new customers, and the company's order volume increased by 40% over the same period last year“ I have great confidence in the future development of the company. "
When talking about the future trend of the industry, Chen Yuxiang, fabric R & D director of Maiya clothing (Shanghai) Co., Ltd., believes that specific problems need specific analysis“ From the perspective of fabric classification, due to the continuation of the epidemic, the trend of indoor sports is becoming more and more intense, and the demand for fabrics such as spandex and nylon applied to yoga clothes is increasing, the market will continue to pick up. In contrast, the fabric market for outdoor sports will weaken. " He believes that it is difficult to realize the overall recovery of the market, but some fabric categories may usher in a new wave of sales climax in the coming September and October.
In addition, some people in the industry believe that this year's "golden nine and silver ten" will eventually come, but it will come a little later. He said that the sales of many clothing brands will break out during large-scale sports events. For example, although the Tokyo Olympic Games are affected by the epidemic, with the help of the "Olympic effect", almost all China's sports brand products related to the Olympic Games have "exploded orders". Therefore, the upcoming Beijing Winter Olympics at the beginning of next year may detonate people's new consumption enthusiasm.
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